No, the US economy is not in a recession, or even on the verge of a recession. Those who still had doubts surely no longer have them as of today and the publication by the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the employment report for the month of July, in which it appears that the largest economy in the world has created more than 500,000 jobs I work last month. “The unexpected acceleration in payroll growth in July, combined with the largest drop in the unemployment rate and the resumption of wage pressure, ridicules claims that the economy is on the verge of recession”comments economist Michael Pearce, in Capital Economics.
In the United States, 528,000 non-farm jobs were created, double what economists had anticipated. It is also above what the US had been used to on the Stock Market in recent months (an average of 457,000 per month for the first six months of the year). There, total employment has even returned to its level of February 2020, before the health crisis.
Job creation affected all sectors of the economy. They were especially numerous in the leisure and hospitality (+96,000), business services (+89,000) and healthcare (+70,000) sectors. “There is no evidence that the slowdown in activity in the housing and manufacturing sectors is translating into lower job growth”notes Michael Pearce.
Again, the 0.75 point on the table
In a job market too “hot”, according to the qualification of the economist, the dream scenario of the stock market according to which the US central bank would soon stop raising interest rates (because inflation began to subside), and even lower them at the beginning of the year. had just been demolished, where numerous statements to this effect by various central bankers this week had done nothing. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said in particular that the work of the US central bank. ” far “ to end in the fight against inflation.
Once again, according to CME calculations based on derivatives of Fed Funds, debt market operators see the Fed raising its key rates by 75 basis points, within a range of 3 to 3.25% (implied probability of almost 70%), and no longer just 50 basis points just before the publication of the statistics.
the bedroom 40 lost 0.63% today and closed below the threshold of 6,500 points, at 6,472.35 points, ahead of the publication next Wednesday of the US consumer price index for the month of July. The wage figures in the jobs report raise fears of self-sustaining inflation. In July, the average hourly wage increased more than expected, 0.5% compared to June and 5.2% in one year (4.9% expected by the consensus in July, after 5.1% of the last month).
Banks and TotalEnergies have benefited
In the bond market, where, however, August is reputed to be the best month of the year, sovereign debt rates have started to rise again (and therefore their price is falling). The 10-year US bond yield has risen nearly 20 basis points to 2.86%. Yields on debt securities with shorter maturities are also rising, but less sharply. The yield curve is steepening again as recession fears subside in the world’s largest economy, which has benefited banks that do what’s called maturity transformation — taking short-term loans into long-term loans. term.
At the European level, the sector index of the profession gained almost 1%, the best performance only behind the index of companies in the “basic resources” sector (mining), and ahead of oil companies. In Paris, Agricultural Credit rebounded another 2% in the Cac 40, after a good rise already yesterday, after the publication of its accounts for the second quarter, better than expected, thanks to the record activity of the investment banking division (sales of hedging products for companies against variations in interest rates, currencies, raw materials).
Recession fears, particularly in England, where the country’s central bank has flatly announced it by the end of the year, explain the 12% drop in oil prices this week. But although the price of Brent from the North Sea remains below the threshold of 100 dollars a barrel this Friday, it rises from 2:30 p.m. to almost 96 dollars (+2% compared to yesterday).
Total Energiesdown for most of the session, closing with a 0.5% gain.
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