Pourquoi ce mois d’août est-il « le moment ou jamais » pour emprunter ?

Pourquoi ce mois d’août est-il « le moment ou jamais » pour emprunter ?

“It’s time, it’s time. Before time, it’s not time. After time, it’s not time. This quote, which you probably insisted on as a child, could now be applied to your debt policy. There is ONE specific time to borrow to make it as profitable and advantageous as possible, and that’s good, it’s now.

Although the interest rate on loans has risen from 1% for 20 years in January to 1.85% now, it is well below inflation, currently 6% in France. “The real rate of borrowing is therefore hyperfavorable because it is largely negative,” agrees Stéphanie Villers, a specialist in macroeconomics. She herself observed with Philippe Crevel, economist and director of the Savings Circle: “The period is ideal for borrowing, especially if your salary follows that of inflation. It’s not every day that we have such an advantageous real rate! A situation that reminds the expert of the 1970s and 1980s, when in a similar context, many French people took the opportunity to become homeowners.

Ideal period, uncertain market

Fans of real estate or hits are not mistaken, as according to the Banque de France, loans to individuals are growing, +6.2% in June compared to last year, and a good estimate for July at 6 .5%, levels not seen from the records. of 2019 and the pre-health crisis. “Loans have been on the rise for several months, and nothing indicates that they are going to go down for the time being,” enthuses Philippe Crevel.

Certainly a significant increase, but not a rush either. How to explain this reluctance with such a large difference between inflation and interest rates on loans? Whether the period is conducive to tactical placements remains highly uncertain: “For most French men and women, there is a great lack of visibility on the country’s economic situation and on their professional future, which is not very suitable for loans . “, recognizes Stéphanie Villers.

The situation is ideal, yes, but only for “employees in an established situation and with enough income to see the changes that are coming,” specifies the expert. Which, let’s face it, narrows down the sample quite a bit. According to an Ifop survey for Cafpi, 79% of the French believe that “we are still in the midst of a crisis”, 66% are concerned about the effects of inflation on access to credit and 57% believe that the level of inflation can delay a purchase plan. So there is no joy.

Appointment in unknown property

There is also uncertainty in the real estate market, whose rules have changed since the health crisis: “We have seen unusual phenomena appear, such as the fall in rental prices in Paris or a marked increase in areas conducive to teleworking. The whole question is whether these trends will be sustainable,” says François Geerolf, economics professor and investment specialist. Another situation that favors the expectation, the hope of a fall in real estate prices in the future. But it is unlikely that the situation will occur, according to the professor: “Unlike other developed countries, the price of real estate in France has not increased that much, so there should not be a sharp drop.”

And tick-tock, tick-tock, the clock is ticking and time is running out to ask for loans. The European Central Bank officially announced on July 21 that it would raise its interest rates, while inflation could peak soon. “Prices should rise less and less rapidly, and the cost of borrowing will skyrocket, making the real lending rate much less profitable,” says Stéphanie Villers.

tomorrow is far

Philippe Crevel is formal: “Today is more likely to go into debt than tomorrow. Soon conditions will be much less favourable, so naturally among the French who can, there is a ‘now or never’ movement”. By the end of the year, gross mortgage rates could average 3%. On June 29, the National Federation of Real Estate (FNAIM) announced in its half-yearly report a “turbulent phase” for the real estate market and expected a sharp drop in activity by the end of the year.

The only glimmer of hope for François Geerolf, the beginnings of the coming economy could restore the image of indebtedness, regardless of its profitability: “In times of chaos, the real estate sector remains a safe haven, little correlated with the rest of the economic market After the hour, sometimes it’s always the hour.

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