Encore un bon chiffre de l’inflation aux Etats-Unis, mais le Cac 40 est resté rivé sur le tensiomètre de Sanofi

Encore un bon chiffre de l’inflation aux Etats-Unis, mais le Cac 40 est resté rivé sur le tensiomètre de Sanofi

A fall of almost 14% to the low of this session, a 20% crash in just three days, or more than 20,000 million euros of market capitalization vanished, it has been a long time since a Cac 40 company had never experienced such disappointment… This it is all the more damaging for the French market as it is one of the heavyweights of the rating we are talking about, Sanofi, in fifth place by capitalization.

At the origin of this authentic cataclysm, the announcement this Tuesday of the suspension of worldwide recruitment in the framework of the trials carried out with its drug tolebrutinib in multiple sclerosis. This prompted the UBS investigation office to immediately review the case and decide to stop being a buyer of the shares. An alert that has not gone unnoticed, as investors seem to remember, due to the broker’s arguments, that Sanofi will soon have to face trials in several US courts (including the one in Illinois as of August 22, according to Deutsche Bank), by claims that the gastrointestinal drug Zantac could lead to various forms of cancer or other conditions. The Food and Drug Administration (FDA, US health authorities) had requested, in early April 2020, that the drug be withdrawn from the market, stating that one of its ingredients, ranitidine hydrochloride, caused, after ingestion, the presence of a carcinogen NDMA in the body.

Tens of thousands of claimants?

At the beginning of the year, 3,100 people had sued Sanofi, but it could number in the tens of thousands if the first verdict in Illinois comes out in favor of the plaintiffs. “, anticipates for its part this Thursday Oddo BHF, which judges as to “ this figure is overestimated because the demonstration of long-term use of the drug does not seem so obvious to justify (taking Zantac at least once a week for a year before the onset of cancer). »

After this real drop in the stock market, the purchases (cheap if the risk is really exaggerated) allowed Sanofi to close the session with a limited drop of 3.3%. What weighs, however, on the Cac 40, which ends, it, only in a small increase of 0.33%, to 6,544.67 points, in a volume of exchanges of 3.1 billion euros.

Reassuring producer prices in the United States

Impossible, under these conditions, to participate in the American party, where the main indices continue to rise (+0.7%) after a significant advance the day before, after new reassuring figures on inflation. Like yesterday, when consumer prices turned out to be more lenient than analysts expected (8.5% in a year, compared to 8.7% expected and 9.1% the previous month), production at retail prices it rose just 9.8% in a year in July across the Atlantic. , below the 10.4% expected and the 11.3% in June. They have fallen in a month, 0.5%, while the objective was a slight increase of 0.2%. Excluding volatile items (energy and food), the rise was twice as low as expected (0.2% vs. 0.4%). For one year, producer inflation came out at 7.6%, compared to the 7.7% expected.

For Peter Boockvar of Bleakley Financial Group, “ This statistic tells us that the inflation peak that we have been talking about for a long time seems to have been reached. Everything remains to be seen, now, to what extent it will continue to moderate and at what pace. »

Double Date in September

At Pimco we are also keeping an eye on the good consumer price data for July. With falling energy prices, June will likely mark the peak of the year-over-year headline inflation ratepoint out its economists Tiffany Wilding and Allison Boxer. However, the annual rate of core inflation is likely to reaccelerate in August and will not peak until September. Because the components behind the truce in July in center – airfares and hotels – tended to be more volatile, while the more “entrenched” (rentals/owners-rent equivalent) held firm, at 5.5% and 3.5% respectively over a year to 2022 and 2023. »

Double date in September, therefore, for the Fed FOMC and August consumer prices, due just before this meeting… Pimco still expects a 0.75 point hike in key rates next month , given the continued firmness of core inflation.

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