Ethereum (ETH) – Vers une poursuite du rebond technique direction les 2300$ ?

Ethereum (ETH) - Vers une poursuite du rebond technique direction les 2300$ ?

Will the prince of cryptos continue his radiant summer? – After stalling below $1,700 in late July and early August, Ethereum (ETH) managed to cross this key level to extend its technical rally from mid-June. So much so that we saw a stealth foray past $2000 last week. This confirms, at least in the short term, a possible capitulation by sellers who positioned themselves late.

The latest technical analysis of Ethereum confirms at this stage, a more marked break in the bearish streak since its last ATH in November 2021. But despite a significant gain from its lows of the year, things could improve and perk up in the coming weeks. for the prince of cryptos.

It makes you wonder if the potential of technical bounce hasn’t already reached its limits. Not least because the rise in all risk asset classes over the summer is based solely on hopes of a easing in monetary tightening following a lull in inflationary pressures. However, in a traditionally slow August market environment, the likelihood of Ethereum favorably threatening $2000 should not be ruled out. Story to sow doubt among sellers.

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Ethereum in weekly units – Kijun and $2300 resistance in sight

Many investors would surely make noise if Ethereum broke above the $2,000 token bar. However, the main point to remember is its hot streak of consecutive weeks up since July 4. With, as a bonus, favorable technical signals that allowed the threat to be temporarily discarded below the support of $1000.

On the one hand, ETH prices have broken up the Tenkan, which itself is rising slightly. And on the other hand, The prince of crypto is gradually approaching the Kijun, not far from the $2,300 resistance and the downtrend of the bear run. At the same time, the Chikou Span, one of the hard cores of the Ichimoku, follows price movements to successively bounce past $1,400 and $1,700, which change polarity from resistance to support.

If the good summer moment continues as in recent weeks, everything would lead us to believe a return of Ethereum towards the resistance of $2300 and Kijun. But when we look lucidly at the weekly chart, the prince of cryptocurrencies has not even recovered half of his losses from the last bearish wave that followed the last break below $3400. Worse still, the status quo in the price position of ETH and Chikou Span vs. Kumo has not moved one iota since last May. It is for one of these technical reasons that I had difficulty believing in a favorable trend reversal in the near future.

Ethereum in daily units: a slight decline for a better attack on the upside?

At my last market point, Ethereum was back above Kumo in daily units. This technical signal was fully confirmed in the following days. First, we have a coordination of upward movements both in prices and in the most reactive curves of Ichimoku, Tenkan and Kijun. And second, Chikou Span is now beyond Kumo, albeit far-fetched.

Ethereum Price Analysis in Daily Units - August 16, 2022

In support of a triple bottom validated since mid-July, it is clear that hopes remain for an extension of the current technical rebound. The slight decline of the past few days could favor this market scenario in the event of a pullback to the Tenkan, Kijun or $1,700 support. Thus, in addition to crossing the $2,000 symbolic bar, a move back towards the $2300 resistance near the downline would give us more insight into the ability of sellers to really keep prices in check. And it is from this future answer that we would know more about a possible neutralization or not of the bearish streak of the crypto prince since his last ATH in November 2021.

While at first glance Ethereum’s technical rally since mid-June is still impressive, investors would do well not to get too naively carried away. Because precisely, the scars of last spring that resulted in a sad record of eleven consecutive weeks in decline, are far from erased. With a bit of graphic foresight, the prince of crypto’s bearish streak since his last ATH in November 2021 has serious arguments.

Not only the trajectory of the future Kumo in weekly units would not encourage us to see the end of the tunnel at least by the year 2022. But to top it off, the assumption of a crossing of the descending line would not be enough to make it a true turning point. decisive in favor of a change in trend. We would need to go beyond the $3,400 resistance to fully neutralize the run down.

Given the current uncertainties in financial markets that are struggling to calm down, this would be wishful thinking. Especially since keeping inflation at a high rate is mainly linked to a supply problem, and not to an overheating of demand. This complicates the Fed’s task to regain control of the situation.

In which case, we would not be immune to a monetary error by the US central bank. This would plunge all risky asset classes into very uncharted territory. Enough to consider a continuation of its bear run for a period in line with its historical standards.

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