Nouvelle hausse en vue avant deux rendez-vous importants aux USA (actualisé)

Nouvelle hausse en vue avant deux rendez-vous importants aux USA (actualisé)


EUROPE IS EXPECTED ON THE RISE

PARIS (Reuters) – Major European stocks are expected to rise on Wednesday ahead of the week’s two biggest economic events in the United States, which will be the release of monthly retail sales figures and the release of the latest Fed meeting minutes. Federal.

Index futures contracts suggest an increase of 0.42% for the Paris CAC 40, 0.14% for the Frankfurt Dax, 0.22% for the London FTSE 100 and 0.24% for the the Euro Stoxx 50.

Therefore, the Parisian market can expect a sixth consecutive session in the green after an accumulated gain of 1.58% in the last five.

US Retail Sales, to be released at 12:30 GMT, are expected to rise slightly in July but decline slightly if autos are excluded, according to Refinitiv consensus. Following the drop in gasoline prices, these figures could help better assess the risk of a recession in the United States.

But investors are especially awaiting “minutes” from the Fed’s July meeting at 18:00 GMT, which could give them further clues about the extent of the rate hike expected in September.

After the ups and downs of recent weeks according to inflation figures, the markets today estimate the probability of a rise limited to 50 basis points at 57.5%, compared to 42.5% for a rise of three quarters of a point, according to the FedWatch barometer.

The meeting will also be encouraged by the results of the US distributors Target and Lowe’s, after those of Walmart and Home Depot on Tuesday, which reassured about US consumption.

VALUES TO FOLLOW:

ON WALL STREET

The New York Stock Exchange closed Tuesday in a mixed order, with the Dow Jones and S&P 500 benefiting from strong results and forecasts from Walmart and Home Depot, while the Nasdaq was held back by falling technology stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.71%, or 239.57 points, to 34,152.01, the Standard & Poor’s 500 gained 8.06 points, or 0.19%, to 4,305.2 and the Nasdaq Composite rose 25.5 points (-0.19%) to 13,102.55.

The S&P 500 closed very close to its 200-day moving average, an important technical level above which it has not closed since early April.

Home Depot (+4.02%) at the time of Mardi de ventes quarterestrielles meilleures que prévues, and Walmart (+5.1%) declaré s’attendre à une baisse moins important de son benefice annuel que ce qu’il avait prévu last month.

At the same time, the rise in bond yields penalized high-tech stocks such as Microsoft (-0.26%) or Salesforce (-0.79%).

Major index futures suggest an open close at breakeven for now.

IN ASIA

On the Tokyo Stock Exchange, the Nikkei index ended 1.23% higher in the wake of Wall Street, registering its first close of more than 29,000 points since January 5.

In China, the Shanghai SSE Composite rose 0.45% and the CSI 300 0.96%, benefiting from a rebound in property values ​​on hopes of further support measures for the sector.

Several sources told Reuters that Beijing will guarantee new bond issues from a small number of property groups; In addition, the National Development and Reform Commission, the country’s main planning body, has assured that it will support demand and speed up infrastructure projects.

CHANGES

The dollar is slightly down against other majors (-0.06%) and the euro is trading around 1.0180 in slow trading.

The star of the day in the forex market for once is the New Zealand dollar, which appreciates after the New Zealand central bank’s monetary policy statement.

The latter raised its reference rate by 50 basis points, as expected, and explained that it could accelerate the continued rise in the cost of money in the coming months.

The pound sterling rises slightly after the monthly inflation in the United Kingdom, which reached 10.1% in July after 9.4% in June.

SPEED

In the bond market, the yield on two-year US Treasury bills, the most sensitive to interest rate expectations, rose to 3.2953%, while the ten-year yield remained stable at 2. 8403%.

Both rose on Tuesday after results from Walmart and Home Depot, in which stakeholders saw an argument for continued Fed tightening.

In the European market, the German 10-year bond is virtually unchanged in early trading at 0.983%.

OIL

The oil market is recovering after hitting six-month lows on Tuesday: Brent rose 1.19% to $93.44 a barrel and US light crude (West Texas Intermediate, WTI) rose 1.32% to $93.44 a barrel. $87.67.

This incipient rebound is based, among other things, on figures from the American Petroleum Institute (API), which show, according to market sources, a drop in crude oil and fuel stocks last week in the United States.

Investors are also awaiting clarification on talks between Iran and the West on nuclear energy.

(Written by Marc Angrand, edited by Kate Entringer)

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