The bullish craze for agricultural commodities, whose prices hit records with the Ukraine war, appears to be weakening: prices of wheat, soybeans and rapeseed have marked a decline in recent days, particularly as Russian wheat exports seem be overcrowded.
Wheat, corn and rapeseed prices have fallen, linked to a possibly inflated Russian harvest. (© AdobeStock)
LThe United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has once again raised the Russian production, already described as exceptional, in its monthly report published this Friday. she must go up to 88 million tons of wheat for this season, with 42 million tons destined for export.
“A net importer of wheat in 2000, Russia is now the main exporting country,” says Arthur Portier, a consultant at Agritel. As long as, the firm recalls, Russia has the logistical capabilities to export.
Russian floating taxes, which are applied to products and change every week, also tend to put off importers.
European exports manage to satisfy the strong world appetite and maintain a sustained pace, with 3.6 million tons exported since the beginning of JulyFrance in the lead with 1.5 million tons exported.
On Euronext, shortly before 15:00 GMT, common wheat was selling at €323.25 a tonne for delivery in September, compared to €340.50 at the close of last Wednesday.
Despite the symbolic importance of the newly opened maritime corridors in the Black Sea, inaugurated thanks to the agreement signed between Russia and Ukraine on July 22, the resumption of traffic in the Black Sea “has not almost no impact on the market “, Estimates Arlan Suderman, from the StoneX brokerage platform, which points to “insufficient volumes”.
According to the UN, between 1Ahem and on August 15, 21 bulk carriers left the ports of Odessa, Chornomorsk and Pivdenny, with 563,317 tons of agricultural raw materials on board, mostly corn.
Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture also reports that 2.65 million tonnes have been exported since June 1, all modes of transportation combined, or 46% less than last year, according to the UkrAgroConsult site.
Decline in soybeans and rapeseed
The USDA was more bullish than expected on soybeans, raising forecast output by 1.4 million tonnes thanks to the US and China.
Coupled with forecasts of milder weather in the Midwest, prices for all commodities fell at the end of the week in Chicago, says Michael Zuzolo, president of Global Commodity Analytics and Consulting, after three weeks of upward momentum.
On the Chicago Stock Exchange on Wednesday, shortly before the open, soybeans were trading at $14.6825 for September delivery. SRW wheat was trading at $7.7350 a bushel and corn at $6.1275.
After soy, oil and palm, rapeseed also recorded a strong decline on Euronext earlier this week. On Wednesday, around 15:00 GMT, it was sold at €619.50 a tonne for the November term, compared to €659 at the close a week ago.
Although a feeling of normalization seems to be timidly returning, “macroeconomic elements or elements external to agricultural markets”, such as the slowdown in China and the global economy, are putting pressure on raw materials, underlines Arlan Suderman.
Soybean demand, for example, could decline due to China, the world’s largest importer and the United States’ main customer.
Corn continues to deteriorate
Growing conditions continue deteriorate in Europe and the United Statesdue to lack of water and high temperatures, with no possibility of improvement at the end of the season despite the return of the rains.
The USDA lowered the US production estimate by almost 4 million tons, due to the drought in the “Corn Belt” in particular, and that of the European Union by 8 million.
Despite these forecasts, the price fell on Wednesday around 15:00 GMT to 314.25 euros per tonne compared to 330.50 euros at the close of last Wednesday.
These production cuts promise to boost European demand for maize, mainly for animal feed. Last week, European imports already reached 3.6m tonnes since the beginning of July, double last year’s during this period.
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