Bitcoin le 20 août 2022 – Fin de la trêve et retour sous les 20 000$ ?

Bitcoin le 20 août 2022 - Fin de la trêve et retour sous les 20 000$ ?

LCrypto King’s Technical Rebound Has Edge Edge – The summer rally in Bitcoin (BTC) halted the bad momentum from the drop below the $46,000 resistance in late March-early April. Unfortunately, all it took was one bright red Friday to wipe out the technical rally from mid-June. One wonders if the lull in the bearish run since its last ATH in November 2021 might not have come to an end.

Furthermore, recent technical analyzes have suddenly skewed in the wrong direction. A return of the king of crypto towards year-to-date lows would dash hopes of an extension of the technical rally. Temporarily shelved, this scenario could resurface at an unexpected moment, but it would reflect a certain logic in which the main risks in the financial markets are struggling to subside.

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Bitcoin in weekly units – A week of consequences?

This week’s bearish candlestick is hurting. In fact, it includes the previous four that evolved on an upward slope. On the basis of this somber observation, Bitcoin prices are no longer far from the $20,000 support. Whereas earlier in the week, many investors envisioned them beyond $25,000. This serious clearance could definitively end the technical rebound. Especially since the fundamentals of the bear run are still present until proven otherwise.

First, the head-and-shoulder (ETE) remains rock-solid as long as the neckline around $41,000 is not threatened. Second, the price position of BTC and Chikou Span against Kumo (Ichimoku cloud) has hardly changed since last May. And thirdly, the crossing of the descending line, which was once foreseen, is no longer relevant.

Worse yet, Bitcoin prices break the tenkan at time T. And if next week were of the same ilk, the threat below the $20,000 support would come galloping back. This would cause a further acceleration of the downside run. With the fear of prices falling sharply towards the $12,000 support, a crucial level of the last bull run.

Bitcoin in daily units: retracement or not at $22,000?

The fatal candle on Friday follows a series of daily candles that broke above the resistance at $26,000. and the upper limit of Kumo, the Senkou Span B (SSB). For technical analysis purists, I would say that it is not so trivial that Bitcoin prices fall below these important thresholds in a deep-seated bear market.

Bitcoin Price Analysis in Daily Units - August 20, 2022

Not only that, BTC prices successively broke Tenkan and Kijun. But the worst is to be feared as they are momentarily below the triple bottom neckline around $22,000 and Kumo. And at the same time, the Chikou Span falls back below the cloud in daily units. Therefore, the weekend should not turn sour at the risk of triggering a bearish wave that would validate the final phase of the bearish run under the sign of capitulation.

That is why A pullback to $22,000 support is critical to preserve the crypto king’s strong summer run and I hope to cross $26,000 again. Conversely, the aforementioned threat below $20,000 would invalidate the triple bottom and rekindle the cryptocurrency nightmare of last spring.

Even if a bad week doesn’t bode well for what’s to come in the future, it’s clear that Bitcoin has taken a beating. So much so that the technical rally since mid-June has already been erased. In any case, current trend reversal points like the $35,000 resistance and ETE neckline are pulling back.

The fact that the lull in the crypto king’s bearish run may intervene faster than expected does not encourage us to be confident going forward. Because precisely, September is statistically a high-risk month for all risky asset classes. During the bear runs of 2014 and 2018, Bitcoin turned bright red during this period. Considering the Fed’s continued monetary tightening, 2022 is likely to be no exception.

Not least because the reasons for the summer rally in risky asset classes are based on hopes that may not materialize in the near future. Hence my skepticism in expecting anything more than a technical bounce in BTC. So I wouldn’t be surprised if volatility comes back in our favour. In which case, the current environment would be ripe for a Black Swan event that would sow discord in the financial markets.

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