Repli en vue en Europe, les rendements et le dollar en hausse (actualisé)

Repli en vue en Europe, les rendements et le dollar en hausse (actualisé)


EUROPE IS EXPECTED TO LOW

PARIS (Reuters) – Major European stocks are expected to fall at the open on Monday as the dollar hits a five-week high, debate over rising interest rates in the United States, the risk of recession in Europe and the economic difficulties in China continue to focus the attention of investors.

Index futures suggest a drop of 0.49% for the Paris CAC 40, 0.44% for the Frankfurt Dax, 0.25% for the London FTSE 100 and 0.4% for the EuroStoxx fifty.

The latter fell 1.23% last week while the CAC 40 lost 0.89% after a series of six straight weeks of gains.

The week ahead will be dominated by US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaking at the Jackson Hole symposium on Friday, giving him the opportunity to clarify his positions on the timing and pace of hikes. of interest rates less than a month before the next one. monetary policy meeting.

From statements by other Fed officials last week, markets mostly held to the need to continue raising rates, the first signs of a slowdown in prices still looking too weak to warrant a change of course.

“Fed stakeholders have emphasized that more rate hikes are coming as the fight against inflation is not yet won,” summarizes Rodrigo Catril, senior currency strategist at National Australia Bank, in a note.

Markets and economists surveyed by Reuters in recent days continue to favor the hypothesis of a 50 basis point rate hike in September, but the possibility of a 75 basis point hike is far from ruled out.

In China, on the other hand, it is the fall in rates that is making the news: the People’s Bank of China (PBC) has effectively lowered its prime interest rates at one and five years, a new credit support measure after the decided last week. in the face of persistent difficulties in the real estate sector and the resurgence of the COVID-19 epidemic.

Awaiting Jerome Powell’s speech, investors will study the first results of the S&P Global PMI surveys on Tuesday and the minutes of the July meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB) on Thursday.

VALUES TO FOLLOW:

ON WALL STREET

The New York Stock Exchange closed lower on Friday, dragged down by falling large-cap US stocks and rising US bond yields, ending four straight weeks of gains.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.86%, or 292.3 points, to 33,706.74, the Standard & Poor’s 500 lost 55.37 points, or 1.29%, to 4,228.37, and the Nasdaq Composite fell from 260.13 points (-2.01%) to 12,705.22.

Amazon (-2.86%), Apple (-1.51%) and Microsoft (-1.39%) were the main contributors to the S&P 500 decline.

For the entire week, the latter fell 1.21%, after four weekly increases in a row. The Dow Jones lost 0.16% for the week, the Nasdaq 2.62%.

Index futures so far suggest a drop of around 0.5%.

IN ASIA

On the Tokyo Stock Exchange, the Nikkei index closed the session down 0.47% as major tech stocks lost ground to Wall Street amid rising bond yields: Tokyo Electron lost 1.97%, Fanuc 1.93% and Shin-Etsu Chemical 1.07%

In China, the Shanghai SSE Composite rose 0.49% and the CSI 300 rose 0.65% after the new PBC rate cut.

CHANGES

The dollar reached its highest level since July 15 against other major currencies before paring its gains (+0.06%).

Beyond speculation about US rates, the greenback is benefiting from the euro’s recurring difficulties: at $1.0032, the latter moved closer to parity following Russia’s announcement on Friday of the closure of the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline. From August 31 to September 2. which is likely to increase the risk of shortages in Europe.

The Chinese yuan, meanwhile, fell to its lowest level in almost two years after the PBOC cut rates.

SPEED

The rally in US bond yields triggered by producer price figures in Germany on Friday is barely fading: the 10-year bond, which gained almost 10 basis points in the last session of the week, briefly topped 3% for the first time since July 21 before. going back to 2.974% and the two-year is shown at 3.2635%.

In the European market, the German ten-year bond, which took almost 15 points on Friday, fell very slightly in the first operation, to 1.213%.

OIL

The oil market fell again after three consecutive sessions of gains, having recovered the fear of seeing the rise in US rates weighing on demand.

Brent fell 1.77% to $95.01 a barrel and US light crude (West Texas Intermediate, WTI) fell 1.38% to $89.52.

NO MAJOR ECONOMIC INDICATORS ON THE AUGUST 22 AGENDA

(Written by Marc Angrand, edited by Matthieu Protard and Kate Entringer)

#Repli #vue #Europe #les #rendements #dollar #hausse #actualisé

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