Covid figures in France: latest assessment of the coronavirus

Covid figures in France: latest assessment of the coronavirus


COVID FRANCE. Number of cases, number of patients hospitalized and in intensive care, deaths… Find out every day, starting at 7:00 p.m., the latest official figures on the coronavirus epidemic in France.

Since the arrival of the coronavirus in France, government services (Santé publique France and Data.gouv.fr) have been monitoring the epidemic daily using a series of key indicators, updated daily. Confirmed cases, deaths, hospitalized and intensive care patients, new admissions, positivity rate and incidence rate… Discover the full updated report below. The Covid-19 figures presented below are updated between 7:00 p.m. and 9:00 p.m. each night (except weekends and holidays).

Here is the latest available official data on Covid-19 in France according to daily reports from Public Health France, its Geodes data site and Data.gouv, based on SI-DEP test data, hospital data and facility feedback medico-social, including nursing homes. Much clarification is necessary to properly understand these figures. They are detailed below the table:

ACCURACY : From January 16, 2022, the official publication of the total number of confirmed cases since the beginning of the epidemic (total accumulation) is suspended” andn due to an extension of the data consolidation period “, specifies Data.gouv. The first figure shown above, therefore, is not an official figure, but comes from an accumulation made by our attention from data unconsolidated published daily through the SI- DEP Database Reinfections are counted as new cases. Furthermore, from June 8, 2022, Public Health France and Data.gouv no longer update the epidemic data on weekends and holidays.

Here is the number of Covid-19 cases, deaths, hospitalizations, resuscitations, and cures seen in plus or minus compared to the previous assessment (usually the day before). Latest data available in France according to the daily reports of Public Health France and Data.gouv:

ACCURACY : Regarding the daily data on the epidemic and, in particular, the number of cases, Public Health France specifies that “the data can be highly variable depending on the detection activities (reduction of activities on weekends, for example , mechanical reduction of the number of cases on Mondays ) and delivery times for results” (generally 24 to 48 hours).

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Starting from the daily data of the coronavirus in France, we have drawn up several curves that allow us to observe the evolution of the virus according to the number of confirmed cases, the number of hospitalizations and patients in intensive care, the number of deaths in hospital and the total of deaths and the number of returns home, assimilated to cures.

For the first graph, the curve represents the average of the cases registered daily for 7 days, while the bars represent the number of cases registered in the last daily report. For the other graphs, the curve represents the total (for example, total ongoing hospitalizations) while the bars correspond to daily changes (balance of hospitalizations each day, new deaths, etc.).

Details on the number of cases: Several changes to the method of recording positive tests have disrupted case accounting since the start of the epidemic:

  • The government and Public Health France changed their method of collecting data on test results in mid-May 2020, with the SI-DEP project. Therefore, the figures recorded before and after May 13, 2020 are not fully comparable. Both the amount and the nature of the tests carried out have evolved a lot. From a few thousand tests at the beginning of the epidemic, France went to more than 1 million tests every week and then to 2 million at the beginning of November 2020, which inevitably impacted the figures. Furthermore, at the height of the first wave, in March/April 2020, the tests mainly affected severely ill people, usually admitted to hospital, leaving out all patients with few or no symptoms. Therefore, the actual number of Covid-19 cases in France was considerably higher than the estimated number of confirmed cases during this period.
  • Since mid-November 2020, the number of positive tests includes, in addition to PCR tests, the results of antigen tests.
  • Public Health France made a duplicate correction on May 20, 2021. While there have been more than 5.9 million cases in France since the beginning of the epidemic, this number has been revised to almost 5.57 million, or 348,846 fewer cases. . A very visible correction in the curve above. others Public Health France has repeatedly reported “incidents” in the data flow.

Details about hospitalizations: We must distinguish here the evolution of the total number of hospitalized patients in a time T and the new hospitalizations, that is, the new hospital admissions each day (gross). In one case, it is a balance, which takes into account admissions, but also hospital discharges (healings or deaths). In the other, we are only talking about new hospital or intensive care admissions with Covid for one day.

Hospitalization data also takes into account patients admitted to hospital “with” Covid-19 and not “for” Covid-19. Therefore, they may consider patients who are hospitalized for another reason. Among all Covid-19 patients, the proportion of patients admitted to hospital for a reason other than Covid-19 (but carriers of SARS-CoV-2) may have reached up to a third of patients based on detailed data. that Public Health France has made available since the end of January 2022.

Accuracy in the number of deaths: Since May 2020, Public Health France no longer updates the balance on Ehpad daily. This report was updated every week, then several times a week to finally stabilize at a rate of once or twice a week. Therefore, we initially preferred to erase the number of daily deaths in nursing homes so as not to skew the graphs. At the request of several readers, starting November 13, 2020, we again display nursing home death updates (dark gray bars), causing artificial spikes during updates. Errors and data corrections have also been reported by Public Health France on several occasions since mid-March 2020, but were also observed at the end of 2021, sometimes resulting in overestimates usually followed by negative changes in the number of deaths.

The Ministry of Health calculates, from the raw data, a series of statistics on the progression of Covid-19 in the country. Below are four particularly important indicators: RT-PCR positivity rate, incidence rate, effective reproduction number, and intensive care bed occupancy rate. If the first and last are easily understandable (percentage of positive tests over the total number of tests carried out and percentage of intensive care beds occupied according to the initial capacities of the country), the other two deserve a definition.

incidence rate, represented by the second curve, is considered a key indicator of virus virulence. This is the number of new cases of coronavirus diagnosed by PCR test that have occurred in the last 7 days. This figure is related to the number of inhabitants, that is, a rate expressed per 100,000 inhabitants.

The reproduction number (R) corresponds to the average number of people infected by a patient. If this figure is greater than 1, it means that a person with Covid-19 infects more than one person on average and therefore that the disease is progressing.

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Precision on positivity rate and incidence rate: Public Health France changed its calculation method for its main indicators, which are the incidence rate and the test positivity rate on December 8, 2020. The addition of antigen tests in the first indicator mechanically inflated the calculation result. The positivity rate has dropped dramatically. The reason for this time comes from the calculation of negative tests: if the same person has carried out several tests in 60 days and these are negative, now each one of them is counted. Previously, if a person tested negative multiple times in a row within 60 days, only the first test was counted. It was only in the case of a positive test that his situation changed.

Public Health France explained in a press release that this new calculation method turned out to be more accurate because it takes into account the “prevalence of the virus in the analyzed population.” “Today, while the epidemic continues, it is common for the same person to take several tests, especially when the previous ones were negative. Furthermore, knowledge has evolved and the risk of reinfection, which today is considered very low but possible after 60 days, must be able to be identified,” the health agency wrote at the time.

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